Dissecting empirical evidence

[brubaie]

Nate Silver provides a textbook example of debunking an empirical claim in his new article: http://fivethirtyeight.blogs.nytimes.co ... um=twitter

Lichtman’s prediction is based on a book he published...called “The Keys to the White House”... <which> claims to have called the winner of the popular vote correctly in each election since 1860... Superficially quite impressive. But ‘superficial’ is the key term here. There are several problems with this model, and its results should be taken with a grain of salt.